Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-27 00:00:00+00:00 10.838869 12.688507 14.715406 17.095642 19.808183 22.796903 26.332788
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 8.344785 10.949996 14.091468 18.130572 23.154997 29.166018 36.864698
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 6.584111 9.543193 13.417029 18.791777 25.976359 35.159774 47.680987
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 5.387142 8.523148 12.932770 19.461423 28.730098 41.240219 59.184087
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 4.298863 7.382166 12.013834 19.288204 30.186788 45.619351 68.752435
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 3.359899 6.244239 10.858821 18.519230 30.581929 48.426657 76.260184
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 2.681972 5.371817 9.936925 17.912889 31.054757 51.276035 83.952381
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 2.276269 4.878632 9.534938 18.046161 32.635446 55.859040 94.539816
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 1.893939 4.343391 8.961352 17.783439 33.494259 59.328670 103.611263
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 1.725840 4.191416 9.048318 18.673073 36.359522 66.221936 118.610857
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 1.523379 3.923795 8.868129 19.034102 38.308623 71.715025 131.673852
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 1.323557 3.618103 8.560662 19.101685 39.711540 76.355968 143.597907
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 1.149350 3.341579 8.285624 19.228947 41.297896 81.549724 157.050989
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 1.095511 3.348916 8.622819 20.648256 45.501971 91.752302 180.010170
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.004194 3.240380 8.685585 21.498902 48.673730 100.316448 200.644281
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.919287 3.129204 8.723473 22.296350 51.807336 109.028788 222.107192
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.790891 2.863047 8.346287 22.117964 52.909002 113.966068 236.929241
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.649647 2.518615 7.711806 21.256632 52.468970 115.869890 246.160612
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.539478 2.237763 7.186991 20.574322 52.327872 118.320321 256.550987
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.477150 2.097314 7.013733 20.725780 54.042541 124.608615 274.765184
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.408414 1.912756 6.682269 20.429354 54.700226 128.759984 288.990528
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.387203 1.898626 6.843673 21.434219 58.474241 139.657002 317.354237
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.351320 1.816392 6.785416 21.841812 60.856443 147.736287 340.399541